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“More Brussels or More Hungary?” was the central theme of a debate on the stakes of the EP elections at the Tranzit Spring Conference entitled “Year of Elections – Year of Change” held on Sunday.
The panel featured Gábor Horn, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Republikon Institute; Zoltán Kiszelly, Director of Political Analysis at Századvég; Ágoston Sámuel Mráz, Head of the Nézőpont Institute; and András Pulai, Managing Director of the Publicus Institute.
During a livestreamed discussion on the event’s Facebook page, Gábor Horn articulated that the significance of the elections transcends Hungary’s borders, echoing their impact on Europe and the global sphere.
He pondered the resilience of the almost four-fifths majority and whether it would remain intact or undergo significant transformation.
Despite Hungary’s governmental inclinations, Horn suggested that only a minor shift in power balance is probable.
András Pulai underscored the necessity for a fortified Europe and Hungary alike, emphasizing Hungary’s dual commitment to the European Union’s sovereignty alongside its own. Zoltán Kiszelly interpreted the prime minister’s aspirations for ceasefire and peace talks as strategic efforts to stabilize fronts and avert potential escalation. Addressing the stakes of the election, Mr. Kiszelly emphasized the potential implementation of majority voting under a post-Hungarian-Polish federalist presidency, diminishing the relevance of the European Parliament’s composition.
Ágoston Sámuel Mráz outlined Hungary’s strategic objective for Fidesz to remain outside the opposition in the European Parliament and instead engage in a grand coalition.
He proposed the formation of a new right-wing coalition, potentially led by Viktor Orbán, with Italy’s Georgia Meloni and France’s Marine Le Pen as pillars, aiming to secure 15-20 percent of the vote.
In assessing international opinion polls, Horn noted the absence of significant shifts, while András Pulai questioned the viability of a potential right-wing alliance. Kiszelly speculated that if protest parties garner substantial support, the European People’s Party might seek alliances. Meanwhile, Ágoston Sámuel Mráz forecasted losses for the current European ruling coalition, particularly for the Liberals and Greens.
Transitioning to the EP elections in Hungary, Horn predicted three to four seats for Péter Magyar’s party, with Momentum and the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (“Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party”) losing significant voter support.
He anticipated four to five seats for left-wing parties united under Ferenc Gyurcsány’s leadership and speculated that Fidesz’s seat count would remain stable, around 12-13 seats.
Pulai shared a similar perspective, projecting losses for Our Homeland Movement and suggesting Momentum’s potential inclusion in Ferenc Gyurcsány’s coalition. He anticipated Fidesz securing a comparable number of seats.
Kiszelly refrained from seat estimations, posing questions regarding Magyar’s potential alignment with Gyurcsány. Mráz identified Momentum as the most significant loser, potentially fading from the political landscape, and envisioned a tri-polar left centered around Gyurcsány, Magyar, and the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt. He predicted that the Fidesz voter base would be mobilized by public sentiment, but the distribution of seats would hinge on party performance against the five percent threshold.
In her live-streamed presentation titled “Face of the Worlds – What Will the New Era Be Like?”, historian Mária Schmidt delivered a narrative highlighting Europe’s historical power struggles.
From the French and British empires to the rise of the German Empire and the subsequent Americanization of Europe post-World War II, Schmidt emphasized Europe’s alignment with the United States and its perceived lack of political autonomy.
Ms. Schmidt underscored the contemporary crisis facing the western world, attributed to demographic and economic challenges. She emphasized Hungary’s historical resilience and its current need to safeguard sovereignty amid external pressures. Concluding her speech, she asserted Hungary’s reliance on internal strength for defense, stressing the nation’s historical precedent and steadfastness.
Via MTI; Featured Image: Pixabay