alt=Kelsey DallasSALT LAKE CITY — With fewer than 100 days to go until the 2020 election, presidential candidates are honing their appeals to people of faith.
President Donald Trump continues to emphasize his support for religious freedom and participate in listening sessions with pastors from across the country. His competitor, former Vice President Joe Biden, is beefing up his campaign’s religious outreach team and meeting with leaders from a variety of faith groups.
Neither candidate is taking the religious voters in their party for granted, according to experts on religion and politics. Instead, they’re actively working to shore up support from friendly faith groups and capture votes that typically go to the other party.
Will these efforts pay off? Here’s what the latest data says about Protestant, Catholic, Muslim, Jewish and Latter-day Saint voters and the 2020 election.
White evangelical Protestants
Trump won the White House with the help of more than 8 in 10 white evangelical voters.
Polls suggest he’ll enjoy equally strong support from this faith group in November, despite ongoing efforts to convince conservative Christians to vote a different way.
In June, 82% of white evangelical registered voters said they would cast their ballot for Trump if the election were held today, Pew Research Center reported. For the most part, they appear unfazed by the mean tweets and moral slip-ups that have angered other people of faith.
“The masses of evangelical voters don’t care about the president’s tweets or his temperament. They care about his accomplishments. And he’s got a long list,” said the Rev. Robert Jeffress, who is one of the president’s top evangelical advisers, during a July 24 appearance on Fox News.
The Rev. Jeffress emphasized Trump’s efforts to reduce access to abortion and increase legal protections for faith groups. Other evangelical leaders have praised the president’s work on international religious freedom and commitment to appointing conservative judges.
Trump’s critics generally acknowledge that he’s fulfilled many of the promises he made to evangelical voters in 2016. However, they argue that laudable policy action shouldn’t outweigh significant moral concerns.
“None of the president’s positives can balance the moral and political danger we face under a leader of such grossly immoral character,” wrote Mark Galli, who was then editor-in-chief of Christianity Today, in an editorial last December.
Galli’s piece and other high-profile critiques of the president have sparked plenty of debate but have done little to shift Trump’s approval ratings. In June, 72% of white evangelical Protestants approved of the way Trump was handling the presidency, Pew reported.
Trump also benefits from evangelical voters’ negative feelings about his opponent. Three-quarters of white evangelical Protestants believe Biden would be a “poor” or “terrible” president, Pew found.
“Only 9% of white evangelicals say Biden would be ‘great’ (2%) or ‘good’ (7%) in the Oval Office, compared with 7 in 10 who say Trump has been good (34%) or great (35%) in that role,” researchers noted.
Survey results like these haven’t stopped the Biden campaign from reaching out to conservative, religious voters. Ronald J. Sider, the president emeritus of Evangelicals for Social Action, believes the former vice president has a chance of taking some evangelical votes away from Trump if he shows he’s serious about listening to their concerns.
“On two issues — abortion and religious freedom — we need to hear that Biden’s campaign understands, respects and can talk to us about our concerns, even though they do not fully agree,” he wrote in a recent column for USA Today.
Campaign staffers have said many conservative Christians respond well when they hear more about Biden’s deep, personal faith, although they admit they’re not expecting evangelicals to jump ship from the GOP en masse.
“We are going to go after every vote, but I do not think we will suddenly win the evangelical vote with 80 percent,” said John McCarthy, the Biden campaign’s deputy political director, to The Associated Press.
Other Protestants
Unlike white evangelicals, white mainline Protestants have had mixed feelings about Trump. Favorability polls typically find that half of members of this faith group approve of his job performance, while the other half disapproves.
These survey results make sense given that mainline Protestant denominations are generally more politically diverse than evangelical organizations. Episcopalian, Presbyterian and Methodist leaders often speak out against Trump’s policies, but many of the people in their pews are pulling for him to win a second term.
In June, 61% of registered voters who identified as white nonevangelical Protestants said they would vote for Trump if the election were held today, Pew found. Thirty-seven percent said they would vote for Biden.
The former vice president enjoys much stronger support among Black Protestants, who have been critical of Trump throughout his first term. Nearly 9 in 10 registered voters who identify with this faith group support Biden, according to Pew.
Biden has worked to strengthen his relationship with Black Protestants during this summer’s protests over police brutality and racial inequality. In June, he met with Black pastors in Delaware and promised to use the power of the presidency to tackle institutional racism.
“The vice president came to hear from us. This is a homeboy,” said the Rev. Sylvester Beaman during the meeting, according to The Associated Press.
Muslims
Biden has also recently increased his outreach to Muslim voters, who generally aren’t as engaged in election season as other people of faith.
In 2016, just 61% of eligible Muslim voters actually cast a ballot, compared to around 85% of Jews, Catholics and Protests, according to the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding.
Last week, Biden participated in a virtual event aimed at closing the gap between those two figures. In his brief remarks, he promised to pass hate crimes legislation, hire Muslim staffers and repeal the travel restrictions currently affecting a handful of Islamic countries, Religion News Service reported.
“I’ll be a president who seeks out, listens to and incorporates the ideas and concerns of Muslim Americans on everyday issues that matter most to our communities,” he said.
Trump has faced criticism during his first term for doing the opposite. Muslim leaders argue that he’s been more interested in stoking fear of their community than building understanding.
His tweets and comments about Islam “add to the false story that Muslims are violent and not compatible with a democratic society,” said Rizwan Jaka of the All Dulles Area Muslim Society to PBS in 2017.
However, even without his controversial remarks, Trump would have struggled to win Muslim voters. Only around 13% of adult members of the faith group identify as or lean Republican, according to Pew.
In general, that hasn’t been a problem for the GOP, since Muslims only make up around 1% of the U.S. population. But it could become one this year if Biden can energize Muslim voters in key swing states like Michigan and Florida, said Wa’el Alzayat, the CEO of Emgage Action, a Muslim political action committee, to NPR.
“Places like Michigan ... went to Trump by just 10,000 votes” in 2016, he said. “According to our research, there’s about 150,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan.”
Catholics
Catholics also have a prominent presence in swing states, which helps explain why both Trump and Biden have ramped up their appeals to this faith group in recent months.
The Trump campaign rebooted its “Catholics for Trump” interest group, and Biden continued to highlight the role Catholicism played in shaping his approach to politics.
“Faith is all about hope and purpose and strength,” Biden said in a campaign ad focused on his religious values.
Biden’s willingness to talk about his Catholic upbringing and the comfort he draws from attending Mass means a lot to Catholic voters, said John Gehring, the Catholic program director for Faith in Public Life. He has a “cultural connection” to this faith group that Trump can’t replicate.
However, that doesn’t mean the former vice president can count on Catholic support. Trump has forged a strong connection with the faith group over the past four years.
“There’s a sense that Trump is the defender of the church and religious liberty,” Gehring said, highlighting the president’s efforts to appoint conservative judges and restrict access to abortion.
As recently as March, 60% of white Catholics viewed Trump favorably, according to PRRI. That figure has fallen as the country has grappled with the COVID-19 pandemic and its affect on the economy.
“White Catholics could be experiencing higher rates of coronavirus transmission and more of the related economic impacts” because the regions of the country where they’re concentrated, said Natalie Jackson, PRRI’s research director, to the Deseret News in June.
Even a slight dip in Catholic support for Trump is significant, since his success in swing states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania depends, at least in part, on the Catholic vote, Gehring said.
“Conservative Catholics who supported Trump last time don’t need to necessarily flip and vote for Biden in these states. If conflicted voters stay home ... that’s going to be a serious issue for Trump,” he said.
Biden held a slight lead over Trump among Catholic voters in Pew’s June poll. Fifty-two percent said they would vote for Biden if the election were held today, while 47% supported Trump.
In 2016, 52% of Catholics, including 60% of white Catholics, voted for Trump, Pew reported.
Latter-day Saints
Like Catholics, members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints generally appreciate Trump’s efforts to expand legal protections for people of faith. But many say they have been frustrated by his leadership style, including his willingness to openly attack immigrant families, the Muslim community and political rivals.
“You could do all the things he is doing without the blatant disregard for others,” said one Latter-day Saint to Business Insider earlier this year.
In part because of these concerns, Trump is less liked by Latter-day Saints than previous Republican presidents.
In 2004 and 2012, around 8 in 10 members of the faith group voted for the Republican nominee, Pew reported. In 2016, just 61% of Latter-day Saints voted for Trump.
A similar share of the faith group (58%) said they prefer the president to Biden in a survey conducted by the Democracy Fund and UCLA Nationscape earlier this year.
Fewer Latter-day Saints (52%) have a favorable view of his job performance, the study found. These findings could spell trouble for Trump in November, wrote Daniel Cox, who is a research fellow for the American Enterprise Institute, in his Business Insider column.
Latter-day Saints “could put purplish states like Nevada out of reach for Trump while making states like Arizona more competitive,” he said.
Biden’s efforts to connect with Latter-day Saint voters have not been as publicized as his meetings with Muslims and other minority faith groups, but some members of the faith group have taken to Twitter to thank him for taking the time to listen to their concerns.
Jews
Just as Trump has impressed many Catholics and Latter-day Saints with his approach to religious freedom, he’s won fans in the Jewish community by strengthening America’s relationship to Israel.
Since taking office, Trump has moved the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, expressed support for Israeli control over contested lands and signed an executive order that could make it easier for the federal government to withhold funds from universities that speak out against Israel.
Around half of Jewish voters approve of Trump’s Israel-related policy actions, according to the Jewish Electorate Institute. For example, 45% of members of this faith group supported moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem.
The president doesn’t fare as well when researchers ask about his approach to other issues, including health care, gun rights and rising anti-Semitism. Fewer than 3 in 10 Jews approve of Trump’s overall job performance, the institute reported.
Jewish voters, who are more than twice as likely to identify as Democrats than Republicans, are more supportive of Biden. In February, 60% of these voters held a favorable view of the former vice president, the Jewish Electorate Institute found.
In recent weeks, Biden has been working to shore up his support in the Jewish community. He hired a Jewish engagement director to lead targeted outreach and ensure his campaign doesn’t get complacent when it comes to this group of religious voters.
“We have to campaign like we’re a few points down,” said Aaron Keyak, who was picked for the role, in an interview with the Jewish Telegraphic Agency. “We have to know we’re doing everything we can to build a broad coalition in the Jewish community.”