If President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party were counting on another ruling from the Supreme Court forcing abortion back into the mainstream of political issues, they should be bracing for disappointment.
On Tuesday, the court heard oral arguments in a case that seeks to roll back the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of the drug mifepristone, a commonly prescribed abortion pill. The issue before the court was twofold: whether the plaintiffs had standing, and if they did, whether the FDA violated the Administrative Procedures Act when it changed the rules for prescription of the drug in 2016 and 2021.
The mifepristone pill is dangerous. It is a toxic chemical that kills a developing human being in the womb and comes with a laundry list of side effects that have been known to put women who take it in the hospital.
But by all accounts, the court does not seem to be interested in striking down the FDA’a approval of the drug. The strongest skepticism of the FDA’s approval and support for standing came from Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Amy Coney Barrett, while the rest of the justices seemed inclined to rule that the plaintiffs lacked standing to bring the case.
For Biden and the Democrats, the outcome of this case could either push abortion back up to the top or severely damage their attempts to make the 2024 elections a referendum on abortion instead of the chaos at the southern border and a middling and inflationary economy. This could be a huge warning sign for the party’s chances in November.
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In 2022, the Republican Party’s much-anticipated red wave failed to materialize. Instead, the party barely took control of the House of Representatives and lost a seat in the Senate. This lackluster performance was widely blamed on the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, as abortion became a predominant electoral issue for the first time in decades.
As Biden tries to secure a second term and the Democrats try to take back the House and hold the Senate, the party is leaning on abortion as its primary electoral message. But now two years removed from the end of Roe, the salience of this message is fading as the border crisis and inflation have returned to the forefront. And with the court poised to rule against banning the abortion pill, there will be no added wind to the boost the abortion campaign sails like there was two years ago.
