After the 2008 elections, Democrats began taking victory laps. Why? Because they were demographically guaranteed to dominate elections for the foreseeable future.
Fourteen years and several election losses later, the dream of demographic destiny has crashed down around them.
VOTERS PREFER REPUBLICAN CONTROL OF CONGRESS: POLL
According to an NBC News-Telemundo poll, 54% of Latino voters want a Democratic-led Congress to 33% who want a Republican-run Congress. That is a gap of 21 points, but that gap is 21 points less than it was in 2012, when Democrats held a 42-point lead among Latinos. That lead dropped down to 34 points in 2018 and 26 points in 2020. Republicans have continued to bleed that support going into the midterm elections.
That effect can best be seen in Nevada, a Democratic-leaning swing state for the past several elections. Nevada has the fifth-highest share of Hispanic residents of any state. A recent poll now shows Republicans leading in the races for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, and U.S. senator. Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the GOP Senate nominee, led in every poll taken in the month of September.
Nevada Independent polling indicates a clean R sweep — including in the Sec/State race: https://t.co/hIVLhUN5pB
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) October 2, 2022
🚨 NEVADA SENATE: Adam Laxalt leads in EVERY poll conducted in Sept
Predictive Insights – Laxalt +2 (45/43)@Peoples_Pundit – Laxalt +2 (46/44)
Insider Adv. – Laxalt +3 (46/43)
Trafalgar – Laxalt +4 (47/43)
DFP (D) – Laxalt +1 (47/46)
Emerson – Laxalt +1 (42/41) pic.twitter.com/jWOgIauyY4
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 2, 2022
Democrats once thought demographics would secure them Texas (the second-most Hispanic state) in election after election. Yet somehow, Republicans maintain steady control of the state. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott hasn’t trailed in any poll this year to perennially overhyped Democrat Beto O’Rourke. While Texas has moved toward Democrats at a glacial pace (if at all), Florida (the sixth-most Hispanic state) has become more Republican in the last several years.
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Add to that a decline in the Democratic dominance among black voters, something that has flared up in the last few presidential elections, and it is clear that the Democratic Party’s arrogance about demographics has given way to reality. In the 14 years since the Democratic Party’s dominant 2008 elections, Republicans have held the House and Senate for six years (thanks to dominant performances in 2010 and 2014), and they are on track to take back one or both chambers after only narrow losses in 2020.
As it turns out, voters aren’t genetically predisposed to vote for Democrats. This should have been clear to everybody, but Democrats allowed their dreams of single-party rule to convince them they could do no electoral wrong. They haven’t learned their lesson yet, given how they blame election rules for their losses and not their own policies and positions. You can bet they won’t learn it after their midterm losses either.
