Annual births in Poland hit new postwar low as population decline accelerates

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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Poland’s annual number of births has yet again reached a record low, new data from Statistics Poland (GUS), a state agency, show. It was also the 12th year in a row in which deaths have exceeded births.

In 2024, the country recorded around 252,000 live births, down from 272,000 the previous year. That marks the smallest annual birth figure in the postwar period, compounding the country’s ongoing demographic challenges. The number of deaths, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 409,000.

As a result, Poland’s population dropped to 37.49 million by the end of 2024, a fall of approximately 147,000 from the previous year. That represented a decline of 0.39%, with 39 people lost for every 10,000 individuals, up from 34 in 2023.

GUS attributed the declining number of births to a persistently low fertility rate and a shrinking number of women of childbearing age, factors that are expected to have a lasting negative impact on future birth numbers.

“The observed demographic processes indicate that the population situation of Poland remains difficult,” said GUS. “No significant changes guaranteeing stable demographic development should be expected in the near future.”

The agency also highlighted the impact of high emigration, particularly among young people, as another key factor in the demographic downturn.

“Emigration, especially temporary migration of young people, continues to intensify, exacerbating the situation,” GUS noted.

GUS also noted that low fertility and the low number of births, together with increasing life expectancy, are contributing to an increasingly rapid ageing of the population. In 2023, the number of people aged 80 and over surpassed 1.6 million, or nearly 5% of the population, up from 3% in 2010.

The former national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government, which was in office until December 2023, sought to address this demographic decline with a host of “pro-family” policies designed to encourage childbirth.

After introducing its flagship 500+ child benefit programme in 2016, the number of births briefly rose. However, that quickly reversed, and births rapidly declined.

The new government, led by Donald Tusk, has pledged to continue the child benefit programme, which is now called 800+. Earlier this month, however, Tusk expressed support for limiting the eligibility of Ukrainians for the benefit to those who live, work and pay taxes in Poland.

Meanwhile, Poland has also seen record levels of immigration over the last decade. GUS estimates that mothers from abroad now account for 6.7% of births.

Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.

Main image credit: Kaboompics.com / Pexels

Alicja Ptak

Alicja Ptak is senior editor at Notes from Poland and a multimedia journalist. She previously worked for Reuters.